BTTS Rate

What is BTTS Rate?

BTTS Rate is the percentage of matches in which both teams score at least one goal. BTTS stands for “Both Teams To Score,” and the Rate simply tells you how often it happens. If a team has a BTTS Rate of 65%, it means in 65% of their matches, both they and their opponent scored.

It’s one of the most consulted stats by bettors playing the both-teams-to-score market. Unlike just looking at how many goals a team scores or concedes, BTTS Rate gives you a combined view: own attack plus defensive weakness, all in one number.

What many don’t grasp is that a high BTTS Rate can come from opposite reasons. A team can have a high BTTS because they score a lot but also concede a lot (Borussia Dortmund style, historically). Another can have it high because, even though they don’t score much, their defense is leaky and they always get scored on. Understanding the reason behind the number is fundamental to betting with insight.

How does it work?

The calculation is direct: count matches where both teams scored and divide by total matches. If Brentford played 28 matches and in 18 of them both teams scored, their BTTS Rate is 64.3%.

For BTTS Rate to actually be useful in betting, you need to cross-reference data from both teams in the match. If the home team has a 70% BTTS Rate at home and the visitor has a 60% BTTS Rate on the road, the combined probability of BTTS Yes is high. But if one is at 75% and the other only 30%, things get complicated and you have to investigate further.

A serious analysis breaks the data into components. On one hand, the percentage of matches in which the team scores (Goal Scoring Rate). On the other, the percentage of matches in which they concede (Goal Conceding Rate). If a team scores in 85% of their matches but also concedes in 75%, their BTTS Rate will naturally be high.

In the 2024/25 Bundesliga season, Bayer Leverkusen had a BTTS Rate of 72% in home matches. They scored in nearly all, but their attacking style left gaps that opponents exploited. That created a perfect profile for backing BTTS Yes when they played at the BayArena.

When to use BTTS Rate?

Use BTTS Rate when you want to bet the both-score market and need to assess whether the odds offer value. The process is: calculate the estimated probability of BTTS Yes based on both teams’ rates, convert to odds, and compare with what the book offers.

It’s particularly useful in matches between mid-table teams. These crosses tend to produce BTTS more often because neither dominates clearly and both have attacking output without being defensively impervious. A Brighton vs Newcastle, for example, is often fertile BTTS territory.

BTTS Rate also shines when there’s a context change the market hasn’t caught. If a team with a low BTTS Rate has just lost their starting center-back to injury, the real probability of conceding goes up, but the BTTS Yes price may still reflect the old data.

Avoid using BTTS Rate alone in lopsided matches. When a dominant team plays a much weaker one, BTTS often fails because the smaller team doesn’t get enough of the ball to create chances. In those scenarios, look at the weaker team’s xG to gauge whether they really get to the opponent’s box.

Practical example

Serie A match: Roma vs Fiorentina at the Olimpico. You pull season data:

Roma at home: BTTS Rate of 62% (8 of 13 matches). They score in 92% of home matches, concede in 69%.

Fiorentina away: BTTS Rate of 58% (7 of 12 matches). They score in 67% of away matches, concede in 75%.

To estimate BTTS Yes probability, you can approximate by multiplying the probability of each team scoring: 0.92 (Roma scores at home) × 0.67 (Fiorentina scores away) = 0.616, or 61.6%.

The BTTS Yes odds are 1.75 (implied probability of 57.1%). Your estimate of 61.6% is above that, so there’s value. The margin isn’t massive, but it’s positive, and if you find these spots consistently, the edge compounds.

Common mistakes

1. Looking only at the global BTTS Rate without splitting home and away. The difference is significant. A team can have a 55% global BTTS but a 70% home rate because their attack is much stronger as the host. The relevant data depends on where the match is played.

2. Not updating data frequently. The BTTS Rate from two months ago may not reflect current reality if there were tactical changes, key injuries, or a new manager. Recalculate rates weekly or at least every two weeks during the season.

3. Confusing BTTS Rate with Over Rate. They’re different markets. You can have BTTS Yes with a 1-1 result (Under 2.5) or BTTS No with a 3-0 result (Over 2.5). There’s correlation between the two markets, but they’re not interchangeable.

4. Betting BTTS in early cup rounds without adjusting the data. When a top-flight team faces a lower-tier side in cup play, the league BTTS Rate doesn’t apply. The context is completely different and you need specific data for those situations.

Frequently Asked Questions

What’s a high BTTS Rate?

In Europe’s main leagues, a BTTS Rate above 60% is considered high. The general average across the top five leagues sits around 50-55%. Teams like Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, or Atalanta consistently sit above 60%. A BTTS Rate above 70% is exceptional and usually points to a very leaky defense.

How do I combine BTTS Rate from two teams?

The most practical method is to multiply the probability of the home team scoring at home by the probability of the visitor scoring away. That gives you a BTTS Yes estimate. It’s not perfect because it assumes independence between the two events (which isn’t fully true), but it’s a good approximation for practical betting use.

Does BTTS Rate work the same in every league?

Not exactly. The Bundesliga historically has the highest BTTS Rates in Europe (close to 55-58% on average), while Ligue 1 and Serie A tend to be lower (48-52%). This affects baseline odds, so always adjust your expectations based on the league. A 55% BTTS Rate is normal in Germany but strikingly high in Italy.